Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
