Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
